What are the possible long-term effects on regional stability if India consistently rejects China's assertive policies?

India and China are two major powers in Asia with a complex relationship marked by border disputes, trade ties, and regional influence. If India consistently rejects China’s assertive policies—such as those regarding border claims, the Belt and Road Initiative, or influence in neighboring countries—it could have significant long-term effects on regional stability in South Asia.

• Increased Strategic Rivalry: Persistent rejection may heighten strategic competition, leading to an arms race, military build-up along the border, and greater mistrust between the two nations.
• Formation of New Alliances: India may deepen its ties with countries like the US, Japan, Australia (Quad), and ASEAN nations to counterbalance China, potentially leading to new security architectures in the region.
• Impact on Smaller Neighbors: South Asian countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh could face pressure to choose sides, affecting their diplomatic autonomy and possibly increasing instability if they become arenas for India-China rivalry.
• Economic Implications: Trade and investment flows between India and China may reduce, prompting India to diversify its economic partners. This could slow down regional economic integration and affect supply chains.
• Border Tensions: Frequent standoffs and skirmishes could become normalized, increasing the risk of accidental escalation into larger conflicts, disrupting peace in border regions.
• Influence on Regional Institutions: India may push for reforms or create parallel institutions to counter Chinese influence in platforms like SAARC, SCO, or the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
• Regional Peace and Security: The overall security environment in South Asia may become more volatile, with increased military deployments and reduced scope for cooperative initiatives on issues like terrorism, climate change, and health.