How might India's decision to stop buying oil from Russia impact its energy security and foreign policy?

India is one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, and in recent years, it has increased its oil imports from Russia, especially after the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to discounted Russian crude. If India decides to stop buying oil from Russia, it could have significant effects on both its energy security and foreign policy.

Impact on Energy Security:
• Higher Import Costs: Russian oil is often available at discounted rates. Stopping imports from Russia would force India to buy from alternative sources, possibly at higher prices, increasing the overall energy import bill.
• Supply Diversification Challenges: India would need to rely more on Middle Eastern, African, or US suppliers. This could reduce the diversity of its energy basket and make India more vulnerable to supply disruptions in those regions.
• Refinery Adjustments: Indian refineries have adapted to process Russian crude. Shifting to different grades may require technical adjustments and could temporarily affect refinery efficiency.
• Inflationary Pressures: Higher crude prices may lead to increased fuel costs domestically, contributing to inflation and affecting economic growth.

Impact on Foreign Policy:
• Relations with Russia: Reducing or stopping oil imports may strain strategic ties with Russia, which is a key defense and diplomatic partner for India.
• Improved Ties with the West: This move could be seen positively by the US and European countries, aligning India more closely with Western sanctions on Russia and possibly opening doors for greater cooperation in technology, defense, and trade.
• Geopolitical Balancing: India has traditionally followed a multi-aligned foreign policy. Reducing engagement with Russia might limit its strategic autonomy and balancing power in global affairs.
• Engagement with Middle East: Greater dependence on Middle Eastern oil could deepen ties with Gulf countries but also increase exposure to regional instabilities.